The Nature and Growing Likelihood of the EMP Threat
Leading experts in the field of electromagnetic effects on critical infrastructure were appointed to the US Congressional Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Commission to look into the likelihood and magnitude of this class of threats and released an executive summary of their report in 2004 and final report of July 2008.
Their conclusions show that the probability of such an attack is greater now than ever and demands the full attention of all who manage mission critical facilities in both the public and private sectors:
"The electromagnetic fields produced by weapons designed and deployed with the intent to produce EMP have a high likelihood of damaging electrical power systems, electronics, and information systems which American society depends. Their effects on dependent systems and infrastructures could be sufficient to qualify as catastrophic to the Nation. … Depending on the specific characteristics of the attacks, unprecedented cascading failures of our major infrastructures could result. In that event, a regional or national recovery would be long and difficult and would seriously degrade the safety and overall viability of our Nation.
The primary avenues for catastrophic damage to the Nation are through our electric power infrastructure and thence our telecommunications and other infrastructures. These, in turn, can seriously impact other important aspects of our Nation’s life including the financial system; means of getting food, water and medical care to the citizenry; trade; and production of goods and services.… A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication."
(Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, 2004. Volume 1: Executive Report, 2004)
The Commission was extended in order to complete a more thorough set of reports completed in 2008 report. It may be reconstituted again to provide oversight to the Department of Homeland Security for implementation. The Congressional Research Service affirmed the Commission's findings in its own independent in July 21, 2008, as did the Department of Defense. For a treatment of the topic in a Space Review article by Dr. Butt in the January 10 issue, see the rebuttal article by Dr. Pry and Dr. Ridasky.
The Extent of the Vulnerability
These reports affirm that utilities and 
commercial electronic systems have little to no protection against electromagnetic pulse. (Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, 2004. Volume 1: Executive Report, 2004, p. 9. See also the 2008 reports.) See Dr. George Baker's introduction to EMP.
Projecting the effects of EMP can be very complex. For more information, see our section on EMP survivable networks and white paper section. If you would like help in assessing your EMP or other mission critical facility needs, see www.safe9-1-1.com for information about our pilot project or contact us at our e-mail address in our Contact page.
EMP Legislation, science reports and broadcasts: The Grid Act, H.R. 5026, draws attention to the impact natural and manmade EMP can have on regional electric grids. See the Fox news link and the National Geographic television programs covering the legislation and threats. The EMP program, Electronic Armageddon, will begin airing on June 15, 2010. See the Nat Geo website for viewings of Cosmic Fire and other programs on geomagnetic storms.
NERC covered these threats in its report issued June 2010 titled "High-Impact Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System".